Vladimir Putin’s generals are urging him to conscript nearly one million troops amid warnings he will run out of men within months.
Ukraine’s spy chief, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, said his intelligence suggests the Russian leader will run out of resources to continue the invasion by 2028.
The top spy chief said Russia is currently recruiting around estimated 1,000 people a day, but this is not enough to keep up with its casualty figures, which already top this number.
“Russia has military and economic resources for the next year, but we estimate it will end in 2028,” he told The Times.
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Mr Putin has now been urged to order a full-scale mobilisation of an additional 800,000 troops by his generals after nationwide elections this month, Lt Gen Ivashchenko’s intelligence suggests.
However, this number may not come to pass.
“In reality, the army can simultaneously absorb — mobilise, equip, feed, train and integrate — no more than 300,000 to 500,000 recruits,” the spy chief said.
His intelligence also suggested Russia suffered around 1,410 casualties a day, and around 60 per cent were killed in action, a sign the continuing Russian invasion is unsustainable.
The Ukrainian estimate is broadly backed by wider western intelligence, which estimates Russia is losing 6,000 more soldiers a month than can be recruited.
HUR, Ukraine’s intelligence agency which Lt Gen Ivashchenko leads, claims Russia has lost 1,502,390 troops since 2022, while the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates 1.4 million casualties with as many as 450,000 deaths.
The average life expectancy of a Russian recruit after reaching the war’s frontlines is thought to be between 20 and 30 minutes, he added.
Ukraine’s 20-mile so-called “kill zone” has been heightened as technological advances in drone and AI technology have made the battlefield the deadliest it has ever been.
Based on current casualty estimates, nearly 10 per cent of Russia’s male population between 25 and 49 has been killed or injured.
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This has left the morale of the Russian population “very low”, according to Lt Gen Ivashchenko.
Mr Putin has so far avoided a mass mobilisation – likely to further demoralise his country – by recruiting foreign fighters into Russian military ranks.
HUR estimates Russia has already recruited over 28,000 foreigners, including an increased number lured from Africa by promises of high pay.
“We’re working to stop this by passing information to the relevant security and intelligence services.
“We also conduct non-kinetic operations to inform the population in the relevant countries,” Lt Gen Ivashchenko said.
A significant number of troops in the Kursk region are now North Korean – HUR estimates around 8,000, but that number could soon rise to around 50,000, the intelligence chief added.
North Korea has also provided Russia with missile support, with intelligence suggesting the Hermit Kingdom has at least 150 KN-23 or KN-24 ballistic missiles for attacks against Ukraine.
Mr Putin, meanwhile, has twice denied any talks of a military mobilisation in September alone, describing speculation as Ukrainian “disinformation”.
“There is no scenario today that would require mobilization,” the Russian leader said earlier this month.
He added: “This is a disinformation campaign by the enemy in the run-up to the State Duma elections, aimed at influencing the outcome.”
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